Nigeria’s inflation landscape showed meaningful signs of relief in April 2026. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), headline inflation moderated to 15.69% which is a notable deceleration from the elevated rates recorded earlier in the year, and a year-on-year increase of just 0.31 percentage points from April 2025. Month-on-month price pressures also eased sharply, with the headline MoM rate falling from 4.18% in March to 2.13% in April, signalling a broadening slowdown in the pace of price increases across the economy.

Food inflation, however, remains the primary burden on Nigerian households, holding at 16.06% and continuing to define the lived experience of millions. At the subnational level, the picture is more nuanced and for the Southwest region, more urgent. While all six states in the region recorded all-items inflation rates below the national peak of 25.74% recorded in Sokoto, Ondo (21.9%) and Lagos (20.0%) emerge as the region’s primary pressure points, warranting targeted policy attention.

This policy brief unpacks the April 2026 inflation data through a Southwest lens by examining state-level trends, food price dynamics, and the actionable policy priorities that must guide the region’s response: from addressing Ondo State’s escalating food prices and extending rural support, to leveraging the supply chain strengths of Lagos and Ogun States as the region’s economic anchors, and monitoring the rebound in Oyo State’s food inflation with renewed urgency.

Read the full policy brief here