Nigeria’s rice milling industry is collapsing, nearly 90 mills have shut down and paddy prices have crashed 51% from ₦720,000 to ₦350,800 per tonne since 2025 shaped by the 2026 tariff reduction (bulk rice duty cut from 70% to 47.5%), alongside unchecked smuggling, near-doubled energy costs, and insecurity in farming areas. This threatens the 2030 self-sufficiency target under the National Rice Development Strategy II (NRDS II), rural livelihoods across the Southwest, bank and investor capital exposure in the sector, and growing foreign exchange pressure from rising imports.

This Policy Brief by the Development Agenda for Western Nigeria (DAWN) Commission calls for urgent and coordinated action: reverse or suspend the tariff cut, clamp down on smuggling, provide millers with financing relief and access to cheaper energy, protect farmers with price floors and improved security, and establish a standing federal–state rice value chain body addressing trade, financing, security, and rice production system as one integrated system rather than isolated fixes.

Read it here